Collective Intelligence
Groups can be smarter than individuals — if the conditions are right. Diversity of opinion, independence, and aggregation mechanisms matter.
James Surowiecki's 'Wisdom of Crowds' identified four conditions for collective intelligence: diversity of opinion, independence of members, decentralization, and effective aggregation. When these hold, groups consistently outperform experts — from guessing the weight of an ox to predicting election outcomes. But collective intelligence is fragile. Information cascades, groupthink, and polarization can collapse a wise crowd into a foolish mob. The design of aggregation mechanisms — markets, voting systems, deliberation protocols — determines whether collective intelligence emerges or fails. Wikipedia, open-source software, and prediction markets are engineered systems that harness collective intelligence by design.